Euroleague Tips with Previews – Round 23 – Friday

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CSKA Moscow – Bayern Munich

Two teams that just snapped losing streaks on Wednesday will clash on Friday as CSKA Moscow (16-6) welcomes FC Bayern Munich (13-9) for Round 23. After losing two in a row, CSKA defeated ALBA in Berlin, 68-71, to retain second place. Bayern had also lost its last two and on Tuesday it beat Khimki in Russia, 93-95.

With the uncertain status of James, the hosts will have a challenge to face a scrappy Bayern team that is having a solid season. Bayern is the second team in the league in steals per game and has a slightly more efficient defense than the hosts. CSKA must impose its strength under the boards, where Nikola Milutinov and Toko Shengelia go up against Jalen Reynolds and Paul Zipser, and find the collective effort to sweep Bayern in this regular season.

  • Robin Amaize, Nihad Dedovic and Zan Mark Sisko have missed the last five games.
  • Vladimir Lucic missed Bayern’s Round 22 game on Wednesday.

After winning on Tuesday against Khimki, Bayern had a couple of days in Moscow to rest and prepare the big game against CSKA. Defense will be the leading tactic for the guests. If it works as it has been doing so far this season, they will have a solid foundation to build upon. CSKA has slightly better numbers on offense, so the German team will have to keep finding the hot hand while trying to take the game to a pace of its liking.

basketball prediction Tip: Over 155.5 at 1.90 with bet365
(Price correct at 29/01/2010, 09:45 CET, subject to change)

ALBA Berlin – Real Madrid

ALBA Berlin (8-14) comes off a home loss against CSKA Moscow and hopes to bounce back against another EuroLeague giant. Peyton Siva (10.1 ppg., 4.6 apg.), Luke Sikma (9.2 ppg., 5.5 rpg., 3.7 apg.) and Jayson Granger (9.0 ppg., 4.8 rpg.) are its main pillars right now. Real Madrid (14-8) beat Panathinaikos OPAP Athens at home this week and wants to keep building momentum. The Spaniards are led by Edy Tavares (11.9 ppg., 7.7 rpg.), Trey Thompkins (10.7 ppg.) and Sergio Llull (9.6 ppg.).

  • Niels Giffey is expected to miss several weeks with an injury.
  • Head Coach Aito Garcia Reneses returned to the bench this week. He had missed ALBA’s previous six games after testing positive for COVID-19.

ALBA picked up 19 turnovers and dished just 17 assists in its loss against CSKA. That is way below its assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.32 this season. ALBA should circulate the ball well to get its best shooters, especially Siva, Marcus Eriksson and Simone Fontecchio, involved. Sikma plays a key role at power forward due to his passing skills and off-the-charts basketball IQ. ALBA allows opponents to hit a EuroLeague-high 56.5% of their two-point shots and should improve that to stop Tavares in the paint.

  • Anthony Randolph is out with a ruptured left Achilles tendon.

Defense led Real to beat Panathinaikos by allowing the Greens just 27 first-half points and keeping them to 66 points overall. Real shot the ball really well inside the arc (63.3%) and grabbed 29 defensive rebounds, which allowed Los Blancos to play their trademark transition game. Stopping Siva and Granger should be a priority, and Real relies on Llull and Carlos Alocen to do so. As always, finding Tavares down low and getting advantage from the many double-team opportunities against him should be very important, too.

basketball prediction Tip: 2 (-7.5) at 1.90 with bet365
(Price correct at 29/01/2010, 09:45 CET, subject to change)

Panathinaikos – Valencia

One of two teams that lost in their first games this week will pick up a win to end it when Panathinaikos OPAP Athens (7-14) welcomes Valencia Basket (11-11) on Friday. The Greens have lost two of their last three games, including a 76-66 decision in Madrid against Real on Wednesday. Valencia has lost five of its last six games, including the last two, the latest being against Zalgiris at home, 78-79, on a last-second basket on Wednesday.

  • Ioannis Papapetrou has not played the last three games.
  • Giorgos Papagiannis missed the last two.

On paper it might look like Valencia is the favorite to win this duel. However, Panathinaikos is the third-best team in the league under the glass, and that will be its main weapon against the guests. Valencia leads the league in assists, so the hosts will have to focus on defense to prevent the guests from playing the way they like, which is to run and find easy baskets, as their best percentage in two-point shots of the league shows.

  • Klemen Prepelic and Bojan Dubljevic returned to action on Wednesday after missing multiple games.

Valencia is going through a rough patch lately, and Athens could be a good place to gain some momentum. The Greens are still re-organizing under a new coach, so the guests should try to impose their offensive style to try to sweep Panathinaikos this season. The hosts are one of the best rebounding teams in the league, so that will be the first challenge. Panathinaikos is also third in blocks per game, so it’s clear that the paint presence of the Greens will be the main obstacle that the guests will have to overcome.

basketball prediction Tip: 1 (+2.5) at 1.90 with bet365
(Price correct at 29/01/2010, 09:45 CET, subject to change)

Crvena Zvezda – Villerbaunne

Crvena Zvezda mts Belgrade (7-15) looks for a bounce-back victory after losing four its last five games. With Jordan Loyd (17.4 ppg.) questionable due to injury, Johnny O’Bryant (11.3 ppg., 5.2 rpg.) and Corey Walden (10.6 ppg.) should be its main pillars right now. LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne (8-14) has won three of its last four games. Norris Cole (13.1 ppg.), David Lighty (11.5 ppg.) and Moustapha Fall (9.2 ppg.) are its top scorers, as Guerschon Yabusele (10.2 ppg.) did not play in Round 22 due to injury.

  • Marko Simonovic has missed the last six games with an injury.
  • Jordan Loyd left Zvezda’s game in the second quarter on Tuesday with an apparent leg injury and did not return.

Zvezda has struggled to score lately, reaching 60 points against FC Barcelona and 72 against Anadolu Efes Istanbul. The Serbian powerhouse combined for 19-of-62 three-point shots (30.6%) in those losses, and should improve those numbers to be more competitive against ASVEL. Finding good shots for its best shooters, Ognjen Dobric and Dejan Davidovac, should raise those numbers and Zvezda relies on Colom to do so. Zvezda should also run its offense through O’Bryant, its most versatile player, to find extra advantages.

ASVEL is averaging 76.5 points this season but has boosted that number to 86.5 in its last two home wins. It is playing with a higher rhythm, too, taking 58.5 field goal attempts and 16.7 free throws on average, but has increased those to 61.5 and 20.0, respectively. ASVEL should keep pushing the tempo, as it has the right players — Cole, Lighty, William Howard, Ismael Bako — to do so. On defense, ASVEL should prevent Colom and Davidovac from generating options for others with good on-the-ball defense.

basketball prediction Tip: 2 (+4.0) at 1.95 with bet365
(Price correct at 29/01/2010, 09:45 CET, subject to change)

Baskonia – Zalgiris

TD Systems Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz (9-13) is currently on a four-game losing streak. Alec Peters (12.0 ppg.) has been its top scorer until now, followed by Rokas Giedraitis (11.5 ppg.) and Achille Polonara (11.4 ppg.). Zalgiris (13-9) comes off a buzzer-beating road win in Valencia and has registered eight victories in the last 10 games. Marius Grigonis (14.4 ppg.), Joffrey Lauvergne (11.6 ppg., 5.8 rpg.) and Augustine Rubit (8.5 ppg.) have been some of its main pillars until now.

Baskonia has allowed 79.1 points so far in this EuroLeague campaign, but that number went up to 88.5 in its current losing streak. Opponents have hit 45.5% of their three-point shots in those four games, way above the overall rate (39.8%). Baskonia should be loyal to its playing style, putting a lot of pressure on the ball on defense through Pierria Henry and Dragic. On offense, Fall and Tonye Jekiri have a size advantage in the paint and their team should make the most out of it.

  • Zalgiris swingman Patricio Garino remains out of action after a knee operation.
  • Steve Vasturia will be sidelined at least until mid-February with a knee injury.

Despite winning its last two games in the final second, Zalgiris set the basis for that with great three-point shooting and supreme ball circulation. Zalgiris combined for 19-of-41 three-point shooting (46.3%), dishing 44 assists and picking up 25 turnovers, in those games. Zalgiris should try to keep a high assist-to-turnover ratio against a tough defensive team like Baskonia, which leads the competition in steals (8.1 spg.). On defense, Zalgiris should concentrate on Peters and Giedraitis, Baskonia’s best shooters, to prevent them from opening the floor.

basketball prediction Tip: Winning margin 3-way ‘Any other result’ (1-5p. each way) at 2.65 with bet365
(Price correct at 29/01/2010, 09:45 CET, subject to change)

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News Source: Euroleague.net

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