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Zenit – Baskonia

Zenit St. Petersburg will look to turn things around when it hosts TD Systems Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz in the first game of Round 30. Zenit (16-12) has lost back-to-back games and three of its last four while failing to score more than 62 points in two of those games. Baskonia (15-14) has won six of its last seven games and now sits on the edge of the playoff zone in ninth place, right behind Zenit.

Zenit’s scoring woes will not go away against a Baskonia side that leads the league in steals (8.2 spg.) and has allowed the fourth-fewest points scored (76.4 ppg.) while holding teams to 51.8% shooting on two-pointers. Zenit has made the second-fewest twos in the league, so attacking from the perimeter may be wiser here; Baskonia’s opponents have made 38.6% of their threes. Avoiding turnovers and getting good looks from downtown would be a boon to Zenit’s hopes.

Baskonia is the superior rebounding team and likes to play at a faster pace, so strong play on the glass could lead to many transition opportunities. However, it has also committed the fourth-most turnovers this season (14.4 per game). If Luca Vildoza and Henry can get Baskonia rolling in transition and minimize the turnovers, a key road win may be in the cards.

Tip: 1 (-4.0) at 1.90 with bet365
( Euroleague predictions with correct price at 18/03/2021, 09:00 CET. Odds subject to change )

Fenerbahce – Zalgiris

Two teams trying to get back on track meet in Istanbul on Thursday when Fenerbahce Beko Istanbul hosts Zalgiris Kaunas. Fenerbahce (17-12) was held to a season-low 52 points in losing at Valencia Basket last week. It was the team’s second loss in four games after having won 10 in a row before that. Zalgiris (15-14) has dropped three of its last four games and was held below 65 points in all three losses.

Fenerbahce comes off a brutal three-point shooting game; the team made just 3 of 23 three-pointers (13.0%) at Valencia. For the season, Fenerbahce is fourth in the league in three-point accuracy at 40.0%, however, that number rises to 45.5% in wins and drops to 32.8% in losses. How well the team shoots this week may decide the game.

Marko Guduric did not play in Round 29.

In a game between two of the best shooting teams in the league – Fenerbahce is ranked second in true-shooting percentage (52.0%) and Zalgiris third (51.4%) – possession will be especially important. Zalgiris is the superior rebounding team; it has outrebounded its opponents by a little more than 1 rebound per game while Fenerbahce has been outrebounded by nearly 1.7. A strong showing on the glass would bode well for the visitors.

Arturas Milaknis has missed the last four games.

Tip: 1 (-8.0) at 1.90 with bet365
( Euroleague predictions with correct price at 18/03/2021, 09:00 CET. Odds subject to change )

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ALBA Berlin – Olympiacos

In a clash of two teams riding two-game winning streaks, ALBA Berlin hosts Olympiacos Piraeus on Thursday. ALBA (11-18) returns home after back-to-back road wins at Khimki Moscow Region and LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne. Olympiacos (13-16) heads on the road after beating Crvena Zvezda mts Belgrade and Zenit St Petersburg at home. The Reds have lost four straight on the road, but had been 7-3 in away games before that.

ALBA is an offensive-minded team, but its inconsistent shooting has plagued the team. The German champs are second-bottom in true-shooting percentage (46.8%), raking 15th in two-point shooting (52.0%) and 14th in three-point shooting (36.4%). ALBA has made 56.9% of its twos and 41.1% of threes in victories, so how well it shoots against Olympiacos could decide this game.

Jayson Granger is out after having hand surgery.

ALBA has committed the second-most turnovers (14.7 per game) in the league and Olympiacos has forced the fifth-most (13.9). If the Reds’ defense can create trouble for the ALBA backcourt and Shaquielle McKissic and co. can take advantage on the break, the visitors will have a better chance at another road win.

Kostas Papanikolaou has missed Olympiacos’s last 14 games.
Hassan Martin is sidelined with a knee injury.

Tip: Over 162.5 at 1.95 with bet365
( Euroleague predictions with correct price at 18/03/2021, 09:00 CET. Odds subject to change )

Real Madrid – CSKA Moscow

This is a battle between the two winningest teams in European basketball; Real Madrid and CSKA Moscow have combined for 18 EuroLeague crowns. Real (17-12) comes off a home loss against archrival FC Barcelona and hopes to bounce back right away, led by Walter Tavares (11.7 ppg., 8.2 rpg., 1.7 bpg.), Trey Thompkins (9.5 ppg.) and Gabriel Deck (8.7 ppg.). CSKA (18-10) comes off back-to-back losses. Mike James (19.5 ppg.), Toko Shengelia (11.0 ppg., 4.9 rpg.) and Will Clyburn (13.2 ppg.) are leading the team right now.

Real is not scoring as it has in the past (79.7 ppg.) but its defense has been outstanding. Los Blancos have allowed 76.7 points in forcing opponents to 51.2% shooting on their two-point shots. In its last three wins, Real has allowed 64.0 points on 42.3% two-point shooting. A great defensive effort may be needed to beat a high-scoring team like CSKA. Real will look to dominate the defensive boards and get easy points in transition through Carlos Alocen, Fabien Causeur and Alberto Abalde.

Anthony Randolph is out with a ruptured left Achilles tendon.
Rudy Fernandez has not played in the last five rounds due to back issues.
Sergio Llull is sidelined after undergoing arthroscopic surgery on his right knee.

Stopping Tavares should be a priority for CSKA, which relies on Michael Eric and Joel Bolomboy to stop him with strong, aggressive defense. CSKA shot the ball poorly (46.3% 2FG, 29.0% 3FG) against AX Armani Exchange Milan in Round 29, when it only dished 12 assists. It had a season-low 4 assists against Real earlier this season. Sharing the ball and finding its best shooters – James, Darrun Hilliard, Daniel Hackett and Johannes Voigtmann – to open the floor to bring Tavares out of the paint – should be important.