Euroleague Basketball Tips
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ALBA Berlin – Maccabi
Two teams seeking their first EuroLeague victories of the new year, ALBA (5-12) and Maccabi (11-6), get down in the German capital to start the second half of the regular season in Round 18 on Thursday. ALBA is 4-4 at home this season and doesn’t play there again until January 30, making this game a key opportunity for the hosts. Maccabi has lost two games in a row for the third time this season, but followed both of the other cases with prolonged winning streaks.
ALBA can run hot and cold, with six team PIRs above 100 this season and six others 76 or lower. It won four of those 100+ performances and in three of them scored more points on two-pointers than threes. It has banked on defense at home to get four of its five wins, and that much will be necessary again vs. Maccabi. But points will also be welcome, and after reaching the free throw line just 2 times last week in losing at Valencia, a little more aggressiveness going to the basket is called for in this game, especially with Maccabi owning one of the best three-point defenses in the league.
Maccabi played with just 10 players, two of them recent pick-ups, in a road loss to Zalgiris last week. Shorthanded or not Berlin, scoring will be a need, and not only because ALBA often scores in bunches. The hosts actually boast the league’s fourth-best points-against defense at home – 73.4 per game as compared to 99.8 away from Berlin! Maccabi needs to double down on its first-ranked defensive rebounding (26.1 per game) and press its general advantage inside, where it ranks second in two-pointers made (21.5) and fourth in two-point percentage (55.7%).
Tip: Over 166.5 at 1.90 with bet365
(Price correct at 08/01/2020, 22:30 CET, subject to change)
Milano – Panathinaikos
In a key battle between teams trying to anchor themselves in the top eight, seventh-placed Milan (9-8) hosts sixth-placed Panathinaikos (10-7) on Thursday. After a five-game slide, Milan won two out of three and boasts a 7-2 home mark. Panathinaikos punctuated a difficult five-game stretch by downing CSKA in Moscow last week and will be quite confident coming to the fashion capital.
Three-point accuracy marks biggest difference between Milan’s victories (43.7%) and defeats (34.2%), but free throw accuracy (86.2% vs. 77.3%) isn’t far behind. The problem is that Milan’s three-point rate has dropped from 40.2% in its first nine games, when its record was 7-2, to 31.9% in the last eight, of which six were losses. Panathinaikos defends threes pretty well, too, which might behoove Milan to focus its attention inside, especially if that means getting more to the free throw line, where it has the fourth-best efficiency (81.7%) in the EuroLeague.
The Greens are coming off a morale-boosting road win that saw Kostas Mitoglou break the club rebounds record with 16 and Nick Calathes dish 17 assists. Mitoglou continuing to collect boards is key because when Panathinaikos rebounds, it helps make up for the team ranking 12th in three-point accuracy. Otherwise, the Greens have few noticeable holes. With the extra possessions that rebounds generate – either second-chances on offense or denying opponents the same after they shoot – make Panathinaikos a formidable machine to outgun, which is why the Greens rank first in scoring with 88.2 points per game.
Tip: 2 at 2.00 with bet365
(Price correct at 08/01/2020, 22:30 CET, subject to change)
Baskonia – Fenerbahce
Two teams revived by much-needed Round 16 victories to start the new year, 12th-place Baskonia (7-10) and 15th-place Fenerbahce (6-11), will duel for the chance to start a winning streak on Thursday. Fenerbahce ended a four-game slide with a solid road win over Olympiacos. Following a three-game losing streak, Baskonia downed mighty Barcelona in Dusko Ivanovic’s first home game on the bench.
Baskonia rediscovered its trademark intensity to beat Barcelona last week. With Fenerbahce ranking second in three-point accuracy (40.2%) and Baskonia next-to-last in defending the arc, allowing opponents to hit 39.9% from deep, the hosts must apply that intensity to stopping shooters first and foremost. At the same time, Baskonia might want to quit launching its own threes, where it also ranks next-to-last (33.0%) in favor of attacking Fenerbahce’s leaky inside defense, where the visitors let 55.3% of all two-pointers go through the basket.
The fruits of a victory in Vitoria-Gasteiz could last long for Fenerbahce, which goes home for three games in a row after this. The good news from its win last week in Piraeus was the club’s season high of 16 three-pointers shared by seven players. With Baskonia enjoying a significant height advantage, expect Fenerbahce to play smaller ball, as it did last week, to fan out and see if those shooters are still hot. If so, the visitors will be in the game long-term to win it; if not, they can expect a dogfight with Baskonia and its fans the whole night.
Tip: 1 at 2.10 with bet365
(Price correct at 08/01/2020, 22:30 CET, subject to change)
Real Madrid – Zalgiris
Co-leader Real Madrid (14-3) attempts to match its longest winning streak this century when Zalgiris Kaunas (5-12), winner of its last two games, visits the Spanish capital on Thursday. After three impressive road wins despite several injuries, Real aims to let the home fans share in a memorable moment. Considering that Zalgiris plays 10 of 17 games in the regular season’s second half on the road, nothing would bode better for its hopes of a revival than stopping Real’s streak in Madrid.
The standings co-leaders proved their incredible depth by winning at ASVEL last week without four players averaging 36.6 points between them. Real’s fourth-ranked defense (76.71 points against) can stand toe-to-toe with third-ranked Zalgiris (76.65), so a nearly 10-point per game difference in scoring will be the hosts’ big advantage going in. Zalgiris draws more fouls than any team and makes the second-most free throws, plus its offensive rebounders out-rank Real’s by a lot. The hosts will do well to concentrate on defensive rebounding to run and unleash their scorers before the Zalgiris defense can set up.
There are not many easy choices for Real opponents when playing in Madrid, but Zalgiris will surely make protecting the ball, prolonging possessions, drawing fouls and battling for rebounds the priorities. Zalgiris ranks last in three-point shot-making but will hope that sharpshooters Arturas Milaknis and K.C. Rivers, who won the 2015 EuroLeague title with Real, can counterbalance some inside points from LeDay, Jock Landale and Edgaras Ulanovas to try to keep pace with the hosts’ potent offensive weaponry. It helps, too, that Lukas Lekavicius comes off the second-best scoring game of his career, 23 points, in last week’s win over Maccabi.
Tip: 2 (+11.0) at 1.90 with bet365
(Price correct at 08/01/2020, 22:30 CET, subject to change)
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News Source: Euroleague.net
Basketball tips: Livetipster
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