Euroleague Preview & Tips – Round 5 – 29/10/2019

Euroleague basketball tips

Euroleague Basketball Tips

Euro League basketball predictions appear under each mini game preview.

Khimki – Panathinaikos

Khimki (3-1) aims for its third home win in as many tries and separation from a close and dangerous pursuer, Panathinaikos (2-2), whose two defeats have come by a single point each. Tuesday’s winner also gets to break a 4-4 historical tie between these teams in its favor. All of their games have been played over the last decade — exactly.

Khimki can always fill the basket, so defense is its main route to victory. Panathinaikos gets well over half its 83 points per game from Calathes, Deshaun Thomas and Jimmer Fredette, while leading the league in two-pointers made. Forcing the Greens to shoot from deep and go to the free throw line is a lot better than letting Calathes run loose and find teammates near the basket, although Jeremy Evans and friends have Khimki ranked third with 4 blocks per game.

Conversely, it behooves Panathinaikos to play up-tempo, not only to create fastbreaks that the Greens finish well, but because Khimki is prone to turnovers, and the difference between protecting the ball or not could tilt a close game in the visitors’ favor. Khimki has great balance between Shved, wing scorer Janis Timma and inside force Devin Booker. Panathinaikos will need to be conscious of helping constantly on defense without getting out of position, a tough assignment on the road.

basketball prediction Tip: 2 (+6.0) at 1.90 with bet365
(Price correct at 29/10/2019, 09:45 CET, could have changed)

Anadolu Efes – Crvena Zvezda

Two teams trending in different directions face off at the Sinan Erdem Dome. Efes (3-1) shook off an opening-round home loss to win its last three. Zvezda (1-3) has changed coaches already and seeks its first road win after two losses away. It would also be its first road win against Efes, which has a 4-2 record against Zvezda since their first meeting nearly four years ago and has won all three of the games between them in Istanbul.

The outside-inside prowess of Efes on the offensive end of the floor especially marks a difference of more than 10 points per game (82-3 to 71.0) between the hosts and Zvezda, the next-to-last scoring team in the competition. It would follow that Efes can simply outgun Zvezda behind Micic (16.0 ppg.), Shane Larking (16.0), Bryant Dunston (13.0), Alec Peters (11.3) and Kruno Simon, who averages 18 over the last two games. With Dunston and Tibor Pleiss patrolling inside on defense, where Zvezda struggles to score, the cards for this game are very much in the hands of the hosts.

Zvezda’s struggles boil down to serious difficulties in making passes into points. Turning the ball over more than any EuroLeague team (16.8 per game to Efes’s 9.3) is one major concern. So is converting opportunities near the basket, where the visitors make a league-low 44.0%. All those numbers need to improve to win on the road. Zvezda shoots better from distance than Efes, but will find it hard to make a living on the three-point line in Istanbul. It’s real road to victory is taking care of the ball, slowing the tempo, and making its passing count.

Derrick Brown will miss the next two weeks of action.

basketball prediction Tip: Over 157.0 at 1.90 with bet365
(Price correct at 29/10/2019, 09:45 CET, could have changed)

ALBA Berlin – AX Milano

These two teams enter the first double-round week of the season with inverted records and opposite trends. ALBA Berlin (1-3) will try to add a second win in front of its fans against a hot AX Armani Exchange Milan (3-1). ALBA started the season on the right foot but has lost three in a row, while Milan has done the opposite, losing its opener by double digits before turning things around with a trio of victories, including its last against Fenerbahce Beko Istanbul.

ALBA is in dire need of a shock, not because of its 1-3 record, but mainly because it needs to turn things around. The EuroLeague is the next level and the German squad seems to have found a brick wall after the first win. The hosts will have to make the most of the third-best offense in the league (85.0 ppg.) and the best mark in assists (23.0 apg.). However, it is also key not to forget about defense, especially on the arc, where Milan has the league’s third-most efficient shooters (42.0%).

Milan is on fire and it will look for its fourth straight win in Berlin. ALBA is a better team on offense, at least according to the numbers, but the guests have the better defense (77.8 to 89.0 points allowed) and slightly better shooting percentages from the field. ALBA is a team that allows almost 90 points per game, so Milan surely will seek to make the most of its defense in order convert steals and rebounds into easy baskets that could boost the guests to another win.

basketball prediction Tip: 2 (-2.5) at 2.00 with bet365
(Price correct at 29/10/2019, 09:45 CET, could have changed)

Villeurbanne – Baskonia

Two teams tied at 2-2 will look to turn their records positive when LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne hosts KIROLBET Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz on the first night of the season’s first double-round week. ASVEL managed to win two home games before hitting the road for painful losses, so the hosts will try to rebound by staying perfect at the Astroballe. Baskonia plays its fourth game on the road and will look to turn a home win last week into a streak.

After a dream-like start to the season, ASVEL faced EuroLeague reality with two big losses on the road. The hosts will look to maintain their charm at home despite being the second-weakest offense in the league (70.0 ppg.). Baskonia averages 7 more points per game, but ASVEL shoots with higher accuracy (34.2%), if less frequently, from behind the arc. If the hosts manage to control the rebounds against an opponent that specializes in that aspect, they will be on their way to a new home victory.

After two losses in a row, Baskonia managed to find the winning path again last week and will look to stay on it for the short trip to Villeurbanne, which is perfect for the visiting team in this double-round week. Baskonia is pulling 10 rebounds more per game than ASVEL thus far and will want to capitalize on that, as well as its solid 54% on two-point shots. If Baskonia manages to make its third-best defense in the league shine again, they could become the first team this season to win at the Astroballe.

basketball prediction Tip: 2 (5.0) at 1.90 with bet365
(Price correct at 29/10/2019, 09:45 CET, could have changed)

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