Euroleague Tips with Previews – Round 13 – Friday

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Khimki – CSKA Moscow

The Leningradka Derby finds the two Turkish Airlines EuroLeague teams from the Russian capital trending in opposite directions. Khimki (2-10) has dropped its last four games and fallen to last place in the standings, while CSKA (9-3) currently shares first place thanks to a seven-game win streak. Their records belie a narrower distance in performance numbers as as CSKA ranks seventh in team PIR (88.5 per game) and Khimki 12th (82.8), but defense is the big difference, as Khimki gives up 9.3 more points per game this season.

Khimki has given up 100 points or more in three of its four consecutive defeats and lost those games by an average of 19 points. It’ll come down to defense for the hosts, especially on the perimeter, where opponents are making a league-high 10.9 triples per game at a rate of 40.5%, which is the second-worst any EuroLeague team allows. CSKA’s defense allows few easy shots, so Khimki needs to mind its rising rate of turnovers, too, while steering the ball to its best-positioned shooters.

CSKA will be a little wary of Khimki’s league-leading shot-blockers, who reject 4.3 shots per game. The means to that end is extra passes leading to assists, which has not been CSKA’s best feature of late. Expect swingmen Will Clyburn, Nikita Kurbanov and Darrun Hilliard to press their advantages in physicality. They average 29.0 points and 9.2 rebounds together, well over the 17.9 points and 6.4 rebounds combined of their Khimki counterparts, Janis Timma, Sergey Karasev and Sergey Monya.

basketball prediction Tip: Under 164.5 at 1.90 with bet365
(Price correct at 11/12/2020, 08:30 CET, subject to change)

Panathinaikos – Zalgiris

Panathinaikos (4-7) comes off a big road win against AX Armani Exchange Milan and wants to keep that momentum going. Nemanja Nedovic (14.1 ppg.) is its top scorer, followed by Ioannis Papapetrou (12.1 ppg.) and Shelvin Mack (9.6 ppg.). Zalgiris (5-7) is on a six-game losing streak and plays on the road before hosting the next three showdowns. Marius Grigonis (14.4 ppg.). Joffrey Lauvergne (10.3 ppg., 4.8 rpg.) and Lukas Lekavicius (8.5 ppg.) are leading the team so far this season.

Panathinaikos ranks fourth in offensive rebounds (11.6 orpg.) and needs big men Georgios Papagiannis, Dinos Mitoglou and Zach Auguste to keep generating second-chance opportunities, while also denying Zalgiris the chance to play in transition. Howard Sant-Roos is a nightmare matchup due to his versatility and one-on-one skills, so Panathinaikos must keep running its offense through him, Nedovic and Papapetrou, who has a size advantage at small forward.

Zalgiris is allowing opponents to make 57.2% of their two-point shots, so finding a new way to protect its paint is mandatory for the visitors. Zalgiris is doing a great job of locking down the defensive boards, however, allowing just 8.8 offensive rebounds. Zalgiris has great three-point shooters in Grigonis, Lekavicius and Arturas Milaknis, so it needs good ball circulation, led by Thomas Walkup and Rokas Jokubaitis, to find the marksmen open looks from beyond the arc.

Zalgiris swingman Patricio Garino remains out of action after a knee operation. Steve Vasturia injured his knee in a Lithuanian League game over the weekend and is out for at least two months.

basketball prediction Tip: 1 (-2.5) at 1.90 with bet365
(Price correct at 11/12/2020, 08:30 CET, subject to change)

Bayern – Villeurbanne

FC Bayern Munich will look to turn last week’s victory into another winning streak when it hosts slumping Khimki Moscow Region on Friday. Bayern (8-4) snapped a two-game slide last week with an 80-77 victory over Khimki Moscow Region in which Wade Baldwin IV matched his career-high with 19 points. ASVEL (3-7) has lost back-to-back games, including a tough late defeat at Anadolu Efes Istanbul on Tuesday. Bayern boasts a 4-2 home record this season and Efes is 1-5 on the road.

Bayern is second in the league in steals (7.8 spg.) led by Baldwin (1.4 spg.), Vladimir Lucic (1.1 spg.), Jalen Reynolds (1.1 spg.) and Nick Weiler-Babb (1.0 spg.). These ball thieves may be in luck against an ASVEL side that has committed a league-most 15.8 turnovers per game. If Bayern can hound the ASVEL guards and get more points off turnovers, it could make a huge difference int his game.

ASVEL is struggling with its shots this season. Aside from Moustapha Fall, the team is shooting 47.8% on two-pointers. The problem has been chiefly with the guards’ mid-range shooting. ASVEL will need to focus on ball movement and better shot selection to rectify the situation and improve its chances in Munich.

Matthew Strazel is not expected to play this week.

basketball prediction Tip: 2 (+5.0) at 1.90 with bet365
(Price correct at 11/12/2020, 08:30 CET, subject to change)

Barcelona – Milano

FC Barcelona (9-3) will look to snap out of a slump when it hosts AX Armani Exchange Milan (7-4) and Friday night. Barcelona has lost two of its last three games, including its first home loss of the season on Tuesday against Olympiacos Piraeus. Milan has won four of its last five games, including its last two on the road. On Tuesday is bested Khimki Moscow Region behind a career-high 26 points from Shavon Shields.

Coach Jasikevicius said of his team on Tuesday: “We already know the formula. If we defend, we are very good. If we don’t defend, we are nothing special.” Barcelona has allowed the second-fewest points (71.9 ppg.) in the league this season and will now need to step it up against a Milan team averaging a league-best 83.5 points. Stopping the team on the perimeter, where Milan shots a league-high 41.8% on threes, is a key starting point.

Milan is trending upward in ballhandling after dishing a season-high 28 assists on Tuesday while remaining atop the league in turnovers with just 10.6 per game. A potential return from injured Sergio Rodriguez (he missed the team’s last two games) would even strengthen that area. On the other hand, Milan is last in the league in offensive rebounds (7.5) and with its battery of active big men, turning that number around would serve the team well in Barcelona.

basketball prediction Tip: 1/1 at HT/FT at 1.71 with bet365
(Price correct at 11/12/2020, 08:30 CET, subject to change)

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