On June 11th of… 2021, Euro 2020 finally starts and 24 national teams compete for the 16th European Championship. On 11 July 2021 is the final, held at Wembley in London. Which country will be the Euro 2020 winner?

As you will of course be aware, the Euro 2020 is being held a year late due to the global pandemic. The effects of COVID-19 are still being felt and have led to the matches being played with reduced fan attendance and restrictions, as well as the teams being expanded from 23 to 26 players. At least the competition has retained its official title, UEFA Euro 2020.

But withouth any further ado, let’s jump into our predictions for the Euro 2020 winner.

The most important factor, which creates the uncertainty in this prediction – no rush, it’s not Covid-19 – is the ‘group of death’; the coexistence in the same group of France together with Germany and Portugal (Hungary is completing the pack). Over the last few months I have been “locking” in Portugal to repeat the success of 2016, but in such a group the fear of being eliminated from the group stage is real. Plus, Cristiano Ronaldo is 5 years older.

Should one predicts France as the Euro 2020 winner, then the same is true, a bad result against Germany in the opening match can see them in trouble. Don’t forget that as World Champions in 1998, they didn’t even qualify from the group stage at the next World Cup in 2002.

Bottom line, I reckon Portugal will qualify because of the opening round when France and Germany crash into each other.

However, I believe the winner of the Euro 2020 will be a team that:

• have an even easier road to the knockout stages, and
• has never won a Euro Championship before.

The impact of fatigue

Clearly, fatigue was an element that my group and I took into account in our evaluations. There are national teams whose players are considerably more overworked than those of other countries. A shining example is England. England’s teams made up 3/4 of the Europa League (26 May) and Champions League (29 May) finals. With that in mind, we also ruled out England as winners despite being the primary host of the Euro.

Which is left based on the above evidence? A team that has developed into a football school over at least the last decade, that has… continuation in the selection of coaches and players who “fit” into the existing plan and whose incredible batch of players for these 10 years have reached the highest level of maturity.

A squad with a number of champions in club level, players who have been drafted by some of the biggest clubs in Europe. A team with a coach who is not afraid. A team from a small country, the country where the most important decisions about Europe are taken.

This forecast doesn’t carry the same weight as any decision they make in their capital city, but you can see after predicting the last three winners of Euro 2008, 2012 and 2016, it holds its own weight.

So…

Long-term Predictions – Wait and… win!

Long-term betting is a popular way of betting especially in the beginning of the season and before the biggest tournaments. However, with a few tips on selecting the right long-term predictions it can become even more profitable. Even during the season or after a specific tournament has started.

You will find the term ‘long-term’ also as ante post betting, which is exactly the same thing.

View my latest long-term football betting tips below:

Longterm Picks & Results

Date	League	Pick	Market	Odds	Bet	Bookie	+/-
10/12/2021	ENG - PL	Man City	Winner	1.61 (10/12/2021 at 07:15)	300
10/12/2021	ITA - A	AC Milan	Winner	5.00 (10/12/2021 at 07:15)	100
10/12/2021	EUL	Sevilla	Winner	10.00 (10/12/2021 at 07:15)	100
10/12/2021	ECL	Real Madrid	Winner E/W	15.00 (10/12/2021 at 07:15)	100
05/06/2021	EURO 2020	Belgium	Winner	7.00 (05/06/2021 at 08:50)	200		-200
28/12/2020	NBA	LA Lakers	Winner	3.60 (28/12/2020 at 09:00)	100		-100
01/11/2020	ITA - A	AC Milan	Winner	7.00 (01/11/2020 at 09:25)	100		-100
01/11/2020	GER CUP	RB Leipzig	Winner	9.00 (01/11/2020 at 09:25)	50		-50
30/08/2019	MUNDOBASKET	Kemba Walker	Top Points Scorer	9.50 (30/08/2019 at 08:30)	100		-100
30/08/2019	MUNDOBASKET	Greece - 1/4 Final	Stage of Elimination	2.85 (30/08/2019 at 08:30)	200		-200
30/08/2019	MUNDOBASKET	Argentina	To win Group B	1.80 (30/08/2019 at 08:30)	300		+240
11/10/2018	EUROLEAGUE	Panathinaikos	Winner	10.00 (11/10/2018 at 09:00)	50		-50
10/08/2018	PREMIER LEAGUE	Liverpool	Winner	5.00 (10/08/2018 at 08:23)	100		-100
14/07/2018	NBA	LA Lakers	Winner	9.00 (14/07/2018 at 09:00)	100		-100
14/06/2018	WORLD CUP	Portugal	To Reach Semi-Final	5.50 (14/06/2018 at 10:15)	50		-50
14/06/2018	WORLD CUP	France - Spain	Finalists	21.00 (14/06/2018 at 10:15)	25		-25
14/06/2018	WORLD CUP	France & Griezmann	Winner & Top Scorer	41.00 (14/06/2018 at 10:15)	25		-25
11/06/2018	WORLD CUP	France	Winner	7.50 (11/06/2018 at 12:35)	100		+650
19/02/2018	ENG CH	Fulham	To be promoted	3.75	50		+187.50
01/06/2016	EURO 2016	Portugal	Winner	21.00	100		+2000
05/01/2016	ENG PL	Chelsea Finishing Position	4th	10.00	50		-50

* Odds were correct at time of publishing and are subject to change.

What to expect

Long-term bets are usually considered bets of instinct. Everyone has read or heard the stories how some Leicester fans had predicted that their team would win the Premier League in 2016 at some crazy odds.

Those are isolated cases. My tactics, which I list under the following table as well as in the Long-Term betting category, are clear. Sometimes there is instinct included (look at Portugal winning the Euro 2016). In other cases it is reading the game of a team, having the knowledge of them and their competitors.

Overall, my long-term bets are a result of every day news, statistics, knowledge and instinct.

At the end of the day, if  you have neither the knowledge of a sport or the instinct, why bet on it?

Portugal!

They undoubtedly have the best European player, Cristiano Ronaldo. But apart from that, the presence of -successful with Greece- Fernando Santos is giving the team what it needs to claim success.

Everybody says, France, Germany; Spain is always in the frame, Italy can always upset their opponents. England… hmmm, I expect to see them winning some important matches first before placing my money on them. But Portugal at 16/1 (17.00) looks the one I’ll go for. It is not only Santos and Ronaldo. The whole team, from the start to finish, has the units it needs to make it real.

So, our prediction of the winner of Euro 2016 is… Portugal!

Longterm Picks & Results

Date	League	Pick	Market	Odds	Bet	Bookie	+/-
10/12/2021	ENG - PL	Man City	Winner	1.61 (10/12/2021 at 07:15)	300
10/12/2021	ITA - A	AC Milan	Winner	5.00 (10/12/2021 at 07:15)	100
10/12/2021	EUL	Sevilla	Winner	10.00 (10/12/2021 at 07:15)	100
10/12/2021	ECL	Real Madrid	Winner E/W	15.00 (10/12/2021 at 07:15)	100
05/06/2021	EURO 2020	Belgium	Winner	7.00 (05/06/2021 at 08:50)	200		-200
28/12/2020	NBA	LA Lakers	Winner	3.60 (28/12/2020 at 09:00)	100		-100
01/11/2020	ITA - A	AC Milan	Winner	7.00 (01/11/2020 at 09:25)	100		-100
01/11/2020	GER CUP	RB Leipzig	Winner	9.00 (01/11/2020 at 09:25)	50		-50
30/08/2019	MUNDOBASKET	Kemba Walker	Top Points Scorer	9.50 (30/08/2019 at 08:30)	100		-100
30/08/2019	MUNDOBASKET	Greece - 1/4 Final	Stage of Elimination	2.85 (30/08/2019 at 08:30)	200		-200
30/08/2019	MUNDOBASKET	Argentina	To win Group B	1.80 (30/08/2019 at 08:30)	300		+240
11/10/2018	EUROLEAGUE	Panathinaikos	Winner	10.00 (11/10/2018 at 09:00)	50		-50
10/08/2018	PREMIER LEAGUE	Liverpool	Winner	5.00 (10/08/2018 at 08:23)	100		-100
14/07/2018	NBA	LA Lakers	Winner	9.00 (14/07/2018 at 09:00)	100		-100
14/06/2018	WORLD CUP	Portugal	To Reach Semi-Final	5.50 (14/06/2018 at 10:15)	50		-50
14/06/2018	WORLD CUP	France - Spain	Finalists	21.00 (14/06/2018 at 10:15)	25		-25
14/06/2018	WORLD CUP	France & Griezmann	Winner & Top Scorer	41.00 (14/06/2018 at 10:15)	25		-25
11/06/2018	WORLD CUP	France	Winner	7.50 (11/06/2018 at 12:35)	100		+650
19/02/2018	ENG CH	Fulham	To be promoted	3.75	50		+187.50
01/06/2016	EURO 2016	Portugal	Winner	21.00	100		+2000
05/01/2016	ENG PL	Chelsea Finishing Position	4th	10.00	50		-50